Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.513773 0.596552 0.685696 0.788508 0.903482 1.027759 1.171911
2025-03-30 0.371359 0.474433 0.593842 0.741211 0.916937 1.118473 1.365713
2025-04-06 0.278970 0.391732 0.531961 0.716411 0.949628 1.231545 1.594607
2025-04-13 0.206706 0.320508 0.472733 0.686099 0.971647 1.334414 1.823049
2025-04-20 0.161759 0.276779 0.441953 0.687792 1.034441 1.494936 2.140193
2025-04-27 0.123503 0.234645 0.406488 0.678238 1.081634 1.641030 2.454666
2025-05-04 0.096893 0.204558 0.383589 0.683608 1.150826 1.824636 2.838047
2025-05-11 0.075143 0.177185 0.360004 0.684563 1.214079 2.006790 3.237024
2025-05-18 0.053678 0.143894 0.319743 0.652314 1.222585 2.110386 3.533521
2025-05-25 0.036828 0.113912 0.278528 0.611176 1.211281 2.182798 3.790506
2025-06-01 0.027117 0.096188 0.256731 0.601033 1.250398 2.337593 4.185881
2025-06-08 0.019602 0.080569 0.235346 0.587827 1.282410 2.483804 4.579553
2025-06-15 0.015317 0.072388 0.229487 0.606904 1.379565 2.753828 5.204022
2025-06-22 0.010187 0.058144 0.204825 0.581793 1.390711 2.878964 5.602644
2025-06-29 0.007021 0.048440 0.188628 0.572192 1.431125 3.059751 6.109655
2025-07-06 0.004609 0.039457 0.171097 0.555708 1.455425 3.213963 6.583395
2025-07-13 0.003334 0.034613 0.164357 0.564525 1.534227 3.475886 7.263834
2025-07-20 0.002261 0.029396 0.154262 0.562524 1.589363 3.697822 7.888396
2025-07-27 0.001603 0.025900 0.148862 0.572322 1.672564 3.981275 8.643330
2025-08-03 0.001093 0.022506 0.142313 0.577496 1.745860 4.251067 9.389967
2025-08-10 0.000607 0.017702 0.127101 0.552914 1.744695 4.370254 9.862071
2025-08-17 0.000295 0.013338 0.110702 0.519733 1.717078 4.431840 10.227781
2025-08-24 0.000164 0.011019 0.102935 0.513120 1.756265 4.637395 10.884546